THE STATE OF DFG AS A BUSINESS

Let's start this by having a rather upfront look at the miniatures industry, the customer base and expectations.

My rather unique perspective:

I have the benefit of looking at this not only from my personal company (A crumb gathering niche within a niche) but also for watching WGF, who I think most would agree had a solid seat at the mid-tier table, with a rather large product offering spanning quite a few interests.

I have worked, not only the creative side designing miniatures, but in my previous life as a buyer/planner, which gives me some ability to understand product reorder points and the financial aspect of just in time ordering, supply chain logistics and the implementation of contracts. Add to this, experience with the manufacturing aspect, working closely with WGF and even producing my own resin releases… I understand soft and hard tool molds, direction of pull and release draft angles. Well at least enough to be dangerous: P The only reason I went over this is to illustrate although I am a fresh new business man, and likely NOT a very good one, I do possess a wide skill base that assists me every day.

The Industry:

The industry, is a niche industry, with most companies either finding their niche within a niche market or attempting to gather the crumbs off the table form some of the larger players in the industry. Volume wise, its not a great industry for those not sitting in the top positions within their niche.

It has been said, you are only as good as your last release and only as memorable as your next tease. I find this to be a true if not slightly jaded view. The 'new shinny' is what drives this market from a sales standpoint. You need to remain in the publics eye as there is always a new 'something' from some other company that will be released just around the corner. 

This is where plastic is king and curse all at the same time. Plastic is a fantastic medium for the end user, light durable, infinitely modifiable and highly desirable. There is no doubt that for a miniature line a plastic release adds desirability and a certain legitimacy that those dealing in lesser materials, metal and resin have a hard time competing with….

But why Mark, why would that be a curse when plastic is King, you ask.

(THE LONG ANSWER)

Most would say the upfront costs, which is the correct answer but only part of the answer, the other part is time to market with plastic. Companies that are in plastic need to be looking about 18 months in advance to have any form of steady release schedule. (Remember the new shiny is what matters) Once again, I know that sounds jaded, but it is not… Your supply chain can back you up and help you drive sales if you have a proven history of delivery.

You need to have the capitol to pay upfront for 6 or so releases to be worked on at any one time. Let's say they are frugal with their kits and two molds for each kit will be required. That would be 12 Molds in the works, 50% down for a total of $60,000 investment tied up for a minimum of 6-12 moths -AND- They need to have available enough capitol to finalize payment on two of those kits, their production run, box/packaging and shipping to their distribution center. So, let's say you plan an average release to have enough stock to get you through a quarter. 3000 is a fairly good number for the first quarter release from a smaller manufacturer without a huge marketing budget to drive sales. i.e. me or WGF. That would be about $55,000 to get two releases to your dock, paying off four molds and the production run for two kits @ 3000ea volume.

Total outlay of capitol required, around $115,000 with another $55,000 needed in another month or two for the next two releases… and this cycle goes on and on as long as you keep the plastic flowing.

Looking at plastic production from a single project or set of molds is only half the answer… Heaven forbid you have a slow release in there that never grabs like it should. If you are not sitting on $100,000 of 'problem solving extra cash', you then do not have the capitol for the next releases and the entire production aspect gets thrown out of whack. Your customers are upset, your supply chain is upset, and the money spent on marketing to tease the next release is pretty much cash in a dumpster fire.

The moral to this story, if you are looking to run a plastic kit line and want to continue doing so, plan 18 months in advance, have 6 kits ready to go to the mold maker from your end at any one time and be sitting on about $250.000 in a cash reserve that is not required for other aspects of your business or its overhead. 

A smarter move would be choosing a format that is kinder on the mold count and margin returned for each kit. KD and Mallifaux are a couple of examples, (Hero models) a single figure sells for nearly as much as a boxed set and requires 1/10 the mold space. Unfortunately, this is not the format that DFG embarked on and I am not sure it is one I would have chosen even knowing what I know now, primarily because the character model scheme is just not that appealing to me…. Let's just say I would need to give it some thought.

So, I think we have established that 'properly' running a plastic miniatures business is expensive….

So you had a flop:

Let's talk about the inevitable soft release. So, you had a flop… bound to happen and you have a release coming shortly behind to help punch back up those numbers. You need to get it out of your head that that slow release will ever pay for its self. The first quarter is the make or break for that kit, flub up the release or have shipping issues and miss the restock or short your initial release, you WILL NOT be getting those sales back, they are gone, your customers and supply chain have moved on to the next release. Sure, they will continue to sell in some small manner, but you missed the boat and the return on investment will likely never come. You can chalk the $15-20K loss up to a learning experience and move on…. Assuming you still have the capitol to do so.

After the first quarter, the product sales will decrease each end every quarter until you hit the products base line. Historicals burn the slowest and lowest but they are steady. Sci-fi is one of the better formats for that initial bump. Fantasy? Not sure…. I do not have any insider information on that. If you have a strong line with distinctive style such as KD, I think you would be fine but that is an uneducated guess on my part.

So, we all are on the same page? Miniatures are expensive, risky, and from an artists stand point a hell of a lot of fun, from a businessman's standpoint, perhaps not the best investment without an eye for the long game and certainly not without a rather large bank account doing nothing but gathering interest.

The customer base:

What a nefarious gathering. Truly, a hive of scum and villainy.

Creative, imaginative, supportive, geeks, nerds, artist, and general loons….. I could not be prouder of all of you!

Seriously though a great community and one that I am proud to be a part of. I think that they key to my success has always been the relationship with my customer base. I can honestly say I miss being a part of that as much or more than I enjoy the creative sculpting aspects.

As was stated in the beginning of this long rambling thread, the shiny new thing drives the business, that is not to say that quality and the feeling of a fair exchange price vs return is not important, because it is. We all need to feel like we received value from our purchase. If any one aspect fails, quality, value, time to market. You as a manufacturer will feel the effects, not just in that sale but in future transactions.

The supply chain is a customer as well. If you are part of the supply chain, you had better be firing up your customer base. The supply chain directly reacts to demand, they my or may not like your product but if it sells, they will bump the next order and if it is flat, they will pull back. For you the customer/end user its about scratching that creative itch with something cool. For the retailers and wholesalers (who are likely geeks like the rest of us) its still about stock movement and fast returns on investment.

Remember your first few months of any release will make or break that release. This all comes back to time to market… Loose that race and you have lost sales, it is an extremely important aspect that every manufacture frets about and that many of us never think about as we wander store shelves or click through retailer's websites.

Expectations:

IT'S A TRAP! (Admiral Akbar, Battle of Endor) 

Also a fun drinking game for this post.

Wipe the sleep from your eyes, this next part is important and although my ramblings may have put you into a stupor, this is meat and potatoes time!

If you have been on this side of the table for any length of time, you will know the manufactures rarely meet deadlines.

This is not just a 'China thing'.

Every vendor I have worked with on the manufacturing end comes in late.

PERIOD, NO EXCEPTIONS.

So how do you manage expectations? How can you guesstimate when something will arrive once the order has been placed? Honest answer, you can't, the delay will range from reasonable, two weeks to mind numbing 1+ years. Best advice is not to even tease a release until it is in your warehouse… let it simmer for a couple of weeks and then release.

The problem for me is that I truly enjoy bringing all of you in on the creative process. I am likely shooting myself in the foot by doing so, but some of the feedback ends in changes or insights that effect the final product. This (for me) is a difficult decision. Do I open the doors and show all while destroying the OOOOOH NEW SHINY! Or pray that the ends justify the means. I still do not have an answer for this problem, I just know that I prefer active participation.

I am not sure how the supply chain felt about that, but I imagine they would prefer an unveiling and big initial hype just before release.

Quality:

Based on your past purchases, we know WGF delivered quality, late, but quality. This in its own way is a trap. I have no doubt that Wai Kee (WGF) knows the value of quality and what that means for retention. He is a brilliant engineer and can be a perfectionist when his attention is fully on a project. Should my next release not rise to the same level, there will be comparisons and expectations will be met or not. I will never knowingly produce crap but not every manufacturer is able to meet that standard to the same level.

Price:

I have always priced with an eye to value for money spent. I tried to keep the kits slightly below some of the 'big boys' so that my customers could view them as a quality alternative that may be slightly more reasonable. This is also a trap. Slaving your price structure to a larger more capable manufacturer means that you may be running at a loss if all things do not go as planned. The pull back from distribution and rising costs to ship outside the US have made it impossible to look at new releases with the same pricing structure, certainly not while staying within distribution.

Kit contents:

When we started this path together, WGF was manufacturing, shipping in full container load to their warehouse and pushing those product up the supply chain that had been in existence for some time. The discount they received by shipping full container loads is substantial, the cost to manufacture, insignificant by comparisons to what a customer needs to pay. Having these large multi sprue kits was not a real concern aside from their volume in the container. When I took over distribution, it became very clear that the kit contents (sheer size) and number of shots per kit would indeed be an issue and A TRAP!  How do you pull back from that or cut a new course once expectations have been set?

Means of production:

As I stated very early in all this, plastic is king, but now that you see the monetary requirements, the delays in time to market, the lost revenue associated with these delays…. Where do you go with all of that? How as a manufacture can you justify any move towards plastic? And if the expectation is that all my releases are to be plastic, well….. IT"S A TRAP!

I will lay out a single example here to help clarify the financial issues with plastic kits. You ready for this? Where ell's will a manufacturer open his books with a real-world example of pricing? (queue cheesy used car salesman commercial music)

One of my best-selling kits, the 20-man Stormtrooper set.

20-man stormtrooper set, cost to manufacture $5.00, not bad, not great but folks in China got to eat too.

Cost to deliver $3.00 (shipping and initial warehousing, would be substantially less if I could fill containers, but the sales volume does not allow for that)

Total cost of kit delivered $8.00

Retail $44.00

Buy at $8.00 sell at $44.00?! Where do I sign up, right? Hang on folks, it's a bumpy ride.

What does it take to run a miniature line and keep the doors open? It's simple really, you need to have a 4-5 X mark-up from the manufacturing costs MINIMUM (kit delivered to warehouse) returning to you on most sales. It may seem crazy high to require 4-5X the cost but when you break it down it becomes clear. Now granted this is simplistic but a good estimate. If you can get it 6X cost delivered is much better, as it allows for some breathing room that may be desperately needed.

1X For cost to re order the kit you just sold

1-1.5X For the associated overhead (Warehousing, utilities Labor) Assuming that you turn the product over every 2-3 months, if it goes longer, it will eat further into the profit margin.

1X Tax…. No way around the tax man.

1X Back into business to fund that next sweet release.

.5-1X Personal profit, a man must eat after all….

$8.00 X 5 =$40.00 all is good! Well, sort of… If I sell direct only, at full MSRP, then I have met my margin. If I sell into distribution, I net $16.00-$17.60 per kit, which works ONLY if your turnover is very fast and you are able to restock with a container load of product.

I tend(ed) to sell 60/40 split 40% direct (at less than retail many times) and 60% into distribution with a 6 to 12-month turnover (sell through last shipment) depending on the SKU.

What does all this mean? It means that there is simply no way to sell into distribution without jacking the kit price so high that it would cripple sales. Retail for a 20-man set would need to be $80-$85 for this kit to make sense from a business perspective. If all of you are confident that and $85 retail is reasonable, and you would snatch them up…. Please say so, but I think I know the answer to that question already.

So, Wholesale is clearly not an option based on the financial realities, but wholesale is consistent. They move product every month like clockwork down to the retailers, they pay the operating expenses by being reliable in a way that my customers cannot be, through no fault of their own. Wholesalers are pushing out to multiple retailers and pushing to a much larger and willing base.

All of the expectations listed above have been on my mind from the first day I took over, reflecting, trying various things, contemplating every month on the direction of the company and how or IF it should move forward. Seriously, I LOVE this stuff, but every month I examine if there is a future or not.

All doom and gloom, right? May as well just call it a day? 

Nope, not yet. There are several paths forward, but they are untested, and the results may or may not net the desired result. I have started the process by removing myself from distribution and reopening a dialog with my customers. I will lay out a few options as I see them and see if any of you have input that might assist in steering the boat. Not to worry, this is not 'on you' DFG will move forward in perhaps some rather unconventional ways that may break some of the 'expectations' but I am more than happy to plot the course and see where it leads.

NEXT UP WHERE TO GO

I will be going over what I have planned so far and possible ways to deal with production and releases.

Storium Theory: Tell The Story Of The Characters

I've written in the past about the responsibility of the narrator to use the details provided by player characters, and to set up challenges for the player characters chosen for the game. Today, I'd like to delve into that same general idea, but from a slightly different angle.

As narrator, you're responsible for setting up the story. You're responsible for figuring out possibilities for the game arc - the way the game will start, how it will progress, what variations could come up along the way, how open things are to being altered by the player characters and by how much, and where the story is likely to go. I've written about these concepts quite a bit, as the responsibility the narrator holds for defining the game as a whole is pretty huge.

But don't forget that as narrator, your job is also to help the stories of the player characters - the main characters, the stars - emerge.

I wrote about this in brief a while back, when I discussed game arcs vs. character arcs - a story, ultimately, is not about what happens to the world at large, but what happens to the characters we are following. Therefore, the narrator's job is not just to define the world's plot, the game arc. The narrator's job is also - in fact, arguably more importantly - to help draw out character arcs and issues.

It is all well and good to have a grand, epic game plot, or events that will affect the fate of the world, or other things that will affect a great many people beyond the main characters. That's fine. In many genres, in fact, it's pretty darn essential.

And it's fine to have a structured story, plotted out to some degree in advance, with some events set reasonably in stone. Some narrators use looser setups with greater player influence, others use more defined ones with less player influence, and those are just a matter of the narrator's particular style. As I said in my discussion of said styles, they're all pretty much fine - it's just a matter of narrators and players who like similar styles finding each other.

So that's all fine.

But what's essential, no matter how you're running the game, is that the story needs to relate to the main characters. It needs to tie in with them. Not just involve them. Any story involves its main characters. What I'm encouraging you to do is more: Go beyond involving them. Go beyond just having them affect events in the story and be affected by them.

The story needs to be about them. It needs to relate to them. Even if there are events in the tale that would have happened without them, there need to be major, major elements of the tale that directly relate to the main characters.

Elements of the main characters' pasts should impact how the story develops. Who the main characters are should matter to the tale. Who they are should be tied intricately in.

Don't just set up events that would work with any group of characters. Look at the characters you have and design events, or at least twist events, to work specifically with them. The tale should never, ever feel like it would happen precisely the same way with another group of player characters. Sure, there can be certain broad strokes that could potentially come out regardless, but the intricate details of the story, the motivations and drama? That should all emerge from who these particular characters are.

And while the responsibility for that falls in part on the players - these are their characters, after all - it can't rest entirely on their shoulders. You, the narrator, must help them. You, the narrator, must make efforts to connect your tale to their tales.

I don't think I'm always successful at this, myself, but when I narrate a Storium game, I want the players to feel like it ended up tied in very strongly with their characters. I want them to feel like their characters' personal problems, issues, subplots, nemeses, and more all got involved. Even when the events start out not directly tied to them, I want them to end up tied in. I want the story to be the story of these characters, not the story of the situation.

That's the sort of mindset I encourage you to have.

Characters have their own subplots (they even have cards for those), their own issues, their own relationships, their own details. And these are not side elements to the story. These are the heart of the tale. These are what gives a tale meaning and drama and emotion.

Do not look at the individual character elements as the things to let players do when the main plot takes a break. Do not look at them as the things players can pull in if they want, so long as they don't get in the way of your primary tale. Do not look at them as "side" elements. Do not look at them as things to be covered "between" major threats.

These are not side elements. These are not less important. These are the very center of your story.

Some narrators plot out a lot in advance. Others take things as they come. Either is fine. But in either case, let the characters guide your story. You can plan events. But plan events around the issues raised by the main characters. Maybe you have things plotted out in advance. That's absolutely fine. But plot them out around the main characters.

There should never be a point in your tale where you say to yourself, "Well, this would be a good point to let the players go explore their personal plots, because I need a break between things for the main plot." That's because the personal plots and the overall plot should be interwoven sufficiently that pursuing the personal plots is pursuing the main plot, or vice versa.

If a player character has a villain in their background who kidnapped their brother, finding that person shouldn't be a side story. That person should be intricately tied to the main story, so that by pursuing the overall plot, the character plot is also explored, and by pursuing the kidnapper, the overall plot elements are revealed.

If a player character was accused of a crime they didn't commit, witnessed a foul deed, murdered a rival, sought approval from a parent, idolized a mentor...those are not things to leave on the sidelines or just explore when you have time. Those are things to tie into the tale. Those are things, in fact, to build the tale around as much as you can. The actual culprit is involved. The murdered rival had information that could've helped. The idolized mentor tried and failed to solve the problem...or maybe is involved in it.

Again, that doesn't mean you can't have an outline to start - having an outline to start is a great narration style. But the outline should be modified by the player characters. The story should fit their stories, and call to their themes.

Remember, you aren't just telling a story - you are telling the story of the characters. Don't build a generic story and then slot them in, or fit their tales into the breaks. Interweave the characters with the tale, and the tale with the characters, as much as you can manage.

Playing Some Guild Ball

Once our local Scrum (month long Steamroller) has finished, I kind of got sucked into Guild Ball again.  This is a fairly odd development, partially because I haven't played the game in roughly 7 months.  Back in July of last year I had to stop all miniature gaming to help my wife through the end of the pregnancy and then birth of my youngest daughter, but before that happened I was a bit upset at the way Guild Ball was played because of how imbalanced things were.

Of course when I stopped gaming, Steamforged released an Errata in July that largely fixed a lot of the problems, and while I was raring to get back into Trolls as soon as I could start gaming again, a few things pulled me into playing Guild Ball and I've really been loving the game all over again.  I figure I'll go through what that was, as well as some of the things I really like about the game in general.

Pulling Me Back In

During the same month of our Warmachine Scrum, a Guild Ball Scrum was also being run, with some playing in both games.  This was handled as promotional event that would allow players who played to get a Lucky model. Since my first team was Brewers and my friend Brian has no intention of playing Masons or Brewers, he was kind enough to give me the model.

Lucky is my first PVC model and Steamforged is making all new teams come in very cheap $50 boxes with 6 PVC models that require no assembly, plus some extra terrain.  They also recently changed the Official Play Document to say that you can now use unpainted PVC models in their tournaments. While I'm pretty good at modeling, it's not really my favorite thing to do, so this kind of setup seems great to me, it's also a great value for starting a new guild.

Another old friend of mine, Kevin plays mini games off and on, but he's not a modeler or painter, so this PVC setup is perfect for him.  After talking about it and him watching us play at the local shop  Kevin ended up buying the Kick Off set which has to be one of the best values in miniature gaming at the moment.

Since he was free to come over on Friday's when my wife would get a girls night out, I could strap my youngest to my chest, have my oldest help roll dice, and get some extra games in each week!  I effectively became Kevin's unofficial Pundit, teaching him the game.

Since I already played Brewers and they're considered a lower tier team, myself and others recommended Kevin start with the Kick Off Masons, which is actually quite a strong team. 

Since then I've basically spent the last three weeks playing only Guild Ball with my gaming night out and then again on Friday's while my wife has her girls night out.  I've gotten double the games in for nearly a month now!

I'm actually good friends with Paul who runs the My Life With Dice YouTube Channel and you can see me play my first game of Pin Vice ever, and my first engineers game in 6+ Months:

Please note, I'm extremely rusty here - many mistakes were made.

Since then, I've been playing some Brewers, Engineers, and I've purchased the last few models to flesh out my Union - getting something akin to Guild A.D.D.

Hobby

One of the nicest thing about Guild Ball is the fact that it's a small model count game that has as much intensity as larger miniature games.  Small model counts plus the fact that you're really only ever painting a model once (ie. no units with duplicate models), it's so easy to get a fully painted force.  This has triggered a kind of OCD for me to immediately paint my Guild Ball models within a few days of purchase.

I'm not a good painter by a long shot, but I truly enjoy playing with fully painted forces, and that's hardly ever the case when I play Warmachine (or when I played 40k or Fantasy).  As such, I really like how achievable it is to play fully painted in Guild Ball.

The game is also nice that you are encouraged to build an optional goal post for your teams that can let you flex your hobby muscles if you wanted. I was excited to finally use my old Bugman's model from Warhammer Fantasy, mostly because it enabled me to put a beautiful Dwarf model I love on the table and actually have it be fun (Dwarfs were miserable to play with and against back in Fantasy). He makes a great Brewers goal post.

My Guilds

The game is also sort of dangerous since it's really not expensive to get into a guild at all, and that was back when everything was metal and starters only came with 3 models.  I started with Brewers with a few Union models added slowly over time, then got a very different team in Engineers to play a more goal scoring game, and then it was "only two more models" (Captain and Mascot) to make a fledgling Union team.

Coming back into the game in the last month, I elected to buy the last few models I wanted to flesh out my Union with Grace and Benediction and getting a captain I'm very excited to play in Blackheart.  Since Brewers are more of a Take-Out team, and Engineers a more Goal-Scoring Football team, the prospect of playing an all 2" Melee team lead by Blackheart that can adapt to whichever game plan I want, but easily do 2 Goals - 2 Take Outs to win is very appealing to me.

Brewers

Engineers

Union

As it is, every model I own besides Lucky is metal, and after assembling the new Grace and Benediction models, I really am looking forward to when I can just buy PVC models from here on out.

Gaming Nirvana

Out of all the options I have to play with in Guild Ball at the moment, I'm spoiled for choice and I'm liking the way things are going. Apparently the game still has some balance issues with Thresher and Farmers, and Corsair Fishermen are still a bugbear in the meta - but supposedly an errata is coming soon.  I've not played against either of those things yet though, and I'm not good enough to expect to win against competitive players so I just look forward to playing and learning in the near term.

Plus with my Hooch Hauler finally arriving, and with two local players getting the new God Tear early access/beta set, I've got a LOT of really interesting gaming time coming up in the weeks and months ahead.

I hope to put up some more content for each of the games I'm playing shortly.